May you live in interesting times, goes the old curse. Well, the past few weeks have certainly notched things up a lot in terms of “interesting.” One of my observations of the Internet is that for the most part, nobody has ever convinced anyone of anything in social media. Ever since the early days of Fido.net and Usenet (get off my lawn), there have been forums and groups and whatnot, and flame wars were pretty much the norm then - even when it was real people, with real names, and higher education, and all that. So with that said, I’m not at all trying to convince anyone of anything in the below. That said, I do want to inform, as there’s stuff going on that’s impacting not just the US, but the world, and contrary to popular belief, there is stuff that you can do.
First, Elon Musk, who as far as I know is still not a government employee, has a group called DOGE - the Department of Government Efficiency and a pun on his favorite cryptocoin. DOGE is actually a real group - it used to be called the US Digital Service and has since been renamed. When DOGE was first pitched, a number of people rolled their eyes, as it was both a meme name and - more to the point - something that has been tried numerous times before. The core issue of trying to rein in funding is that everything that has funding has some sponsors in Congress who want it, and in particular, people who elect, or donate, to re-elect said Congressperson want it. So, when some blue-ribbon committee identified this waste or this program that wasn’t essential, for the most part, nothing changed. And history has shown that whenever one party has all three branches of government, they do cut spending - on what they don’t like, and increases on things they do like. But net spending tends to increase.
However, it’s becoming clear that Musk and company don’t intend to do things in the ways that have been tried before. Instead, he’s brought in a number of folks, many of whom seem to be super junior (19-24), jumping into things. Wired of all places seems to be doing the most in-depth reporting here. There are now multiple reports that they’ve gotten access directly to the Treasury systems that process payments on behalf of the US Government. What people are concerned about - rightly so - is that the plan is to stop payments on things. Now, it turns out that is blatantly illegal - meaning, President Nixon (the one who resigned for readers not familiar with US history) tried it, and the Supreme Court found it unconstitutional in a 9-0 vote. Then Congress passed a more formal law to ensure that Nixon and future Presidents couldn’t do it, naming it the Impoundment Control Act. Even if this wasn’t part of the Constitution it’s still a good policy - if the President can impound funds, that effectively means parties in Congress can’t make any deals to make progress for fear that the one side will let the President reneg. Without that degree of trust, nothing gets done.
This is a pretty dangerous spot… Regardless of any political leanings (even if you’re leanings are pro-Chinese or pro-Russia). It means a private company and the richest guy in the world has keys to the kingdom - another Mayer Amschel Rothschild (“Permit me to issue and control the money of a nation, and I care not who makes the laws”). Those systems show all the payments made - and some have been posted on X. It does turn out that payments from the US Treasury are public, but at the end of the day, it’s not really something where anyone can look up how much we all got back, or paid, for our taxes. Now these folks have access, and the worry is they will simply impound funds at the point of payment. At that point, it’s not just a Constitutional crisis - if a compliant Congress ignores it, what happens is it becomes a precedent - and future leaders can, and will, do the same thing. The result here is an instability that can’t soon be rectified - which for a country where a good chunk of the world has parked its money.
The second issue is that Trump has enacted a 25% tariff on nearly all goods from Canada and Mexico, and 10% on China. This is after during his first term he re-negotiated NAFTA, the North America Free Trade Agreement, to the USMCA, US-Mexico-Canada-Agreement, treaty. Now, what people are focusing on is the pain this will cause as Canada and Mexico have retaliated with equivalent tariffs - generally speaking, the auto industry is about to take a huge hit (save companies like Tesla, which for the most part are all US based. Funny how that works.) This will cause a lot of unemployment and inflation in the short term. What’s unclear is exactly what Trump wants - especially from Canada. Despite Trump saying it’s due to lax border controls and letting in all the fentanyl, most fentanyl doesn’t come from Canada. It’s also not a migrant problem as there isn’t a ton of migrants trying to get in from Canada - I personally have gone across the border out here in WA state a number of times and worse case, it’s an hour wait.
But there’s a bigger issue at play, which is that the US is OK with letting its President withdraw from any treaties, despite those needing to be approved by Congress. Treaties are set up by the Constitution as the law of the land and require Congressional ratification; that Congress has let any President end them whenever means that nations shouldn’t bother making treaties with the US, as the US will abandon them at its convenience. So why should our two biggest trading partners, Canada and Mexico, bother with a new treaty, one that will be discarded on a whim? Why should Europe or any other government?
To be clear: the USMCA is up for renegotiation in 2026, and Congress could vote to withdraw from the treaty. It could be argued Mexico isn’t doing enough on their side of the border; but it’s very hard to argue that Canada is a problem at all. Even places like www.reddit.com/r/conservative have a number of posters trying to understand what Trump is trying to do here.
Why does this matter, regardless of political leanings? Well, simply put, a key component of successful countries is stability. An America First is America Alone, and one that is having trade wars with its closest allies let alone its actual adversaries and enemies is one that won’t be successful. This isn’t to say there aren’t big, serious issues that need to be addressed - there are. But when the world’s superpower turns into an agent of chaos, the serious issues aren’t addressed. Rather, what happens are privateers and profitiers start looting, leaving everyone else scrambling for crumbs. While we all try to make the world a better place through technology and commerce, if there aren’t stable markets and customers who are willing to spend their money, it’s all for naught.
So, what can you do? Well, let me leave you with a few thoughts.
If you disagree with the above, let me know, and tell me why. Maybe I’m wrong. Explain tariffs on Canada to me - and not in a “you have to have faith” but tell me the logic.
If you agree, then the most powerful thing you can do is talk to people, and say that you don’t think it’s OK. It’s as simple as that. Elections are far away, but everyone is trying to get a signal on whether what’s happening is OK or not, and how things will go. As they hear more and more, comments turn into narrative, and narrative drives change. Our problems shouldn’t take shock and awe and submission - history has shown that those arrangements are temporary, and end violently. To paraphrase from Jim Wright of stonekettle.com, if you want a better world, be a better citizen.
Erik
About this newsletter:
In many previous jobs, I’ve written a “Weekly Wrap” as a way to help my team as well as colleagues understand the bigger picture of what is going on. Sometimes the topics were about career management, sometimes cultural, and sometimes highlighting what had happened in the company. This series is for public consumption, which does make it more generic and more focused on career and culture. I hope you find it useful!